All the signs point to it. The International Energy Agency figures published on Monday 11th October show Angola powering ahead in an upward trend that took off during the early noughties. Their analysis suggests that it will outpace Nigeria during 2016 and that Africa’s most populous nation will not recover it’s leadership position until the mid 2020s. Nigeria loses about $5 billion a year due to theft at the rate of 150,000 barrels a day.
Why does this matter to Nigeria? Most of Angola’s oil is off shore and as a consequence is better integrated into the acquisition and supply chain, making theft very difficult unlike Nigerian oil. Secondly, as a result of Angola’s stable production levels, relatively good governance compared to Nigeria, it stands to attract the investment which under normal circumstances would have gone to Nigeria. Dolapo Oni, an oil and Gas analyst at Ecobank, discusses the issues with CNBC Africa.
This presents an interesting dilemma for the African diaspora keen to invest in African enterprises. Nigeria continues to be an attractive proposition, it is impossible to ignore the potential of a country with 160 million people, a burgeoning middle class, with attractive infrastructure projects in the south such as Eko Atlantic City and the Lekki trade zone amongst many others.